A graph, courtesy of NASA, showing the last three Solar Cycles, depicting the number of sunspots at various points in each cycle. The graph, like most such graphs, has a baseline of zero sunspots, and the 'peaks' in the graph show the number of sunspots, which obviously have been lower in number over the past three Solar Cycles. Many radio aficionados and ham radio people look to graphs like this to determine the possibility of great long distance radio conditions (more sunspots = good conditions, less sunspots = poor conditions).
But there is more to the story than just sunspot numbers, when it comes to SW and MW radio propagation (and even LW propagation is affected by solar cycles, to a certain extent). Propagation depends on UV radiation from the Sun, rather than the number of sunspots. And -- as I explain in this article -- that UV has been decreasing.
And -- by the way -- UV levels are never indicated on any of these Solar Cycle charts you see on the ham radio forums and DXing sites.
When I first started working on this article in late 2023, we were supposedly approaching the peak period of Solar Cycle #25. I added to the article, editing and revising it through early and mid 2024. During that time, my observations concerning the Solar Cycle, and its effects on the Radio reception conditions never changed. It is now the start of Summer, 2025, and there is no doubt that we are still in the Solar peak period.
Now, for those of you out there who aren't into long distance radio listening, that bit of info might sound like gibberish, but for those of us who are into Shortwave and Medium Wave long distance radio listening (DX'ing) -- and also for ham radio operators -- Solar Cycle Peak periods are a really big deal. They are supposed to be a time when long distance radio reception is terrific, or at least very, very good.
This is because Shortwave and Mediumwave radio signals bounce off the ionosphere, mostly at night (although some Shortwave signals do so during the daylight hours), and the ionosphere is activated by the Sun. And the Sun is more 'active' during the peak times of each 11 year Solar Cycle. And we are at, or closing in on, the peak of this most recent Solar Cycle, the one the solar scientists call Solar Cycle #25 (the last Solar Cycle, #24, 'peaked' between 2012-2015 or so).
Estimates on when the true 'Peak' -- the apex of this Cycle -- actually occurs have varied between late last Fall (2023) and July 2025. Generally, Solar Cycle 'Peaks' last 3-4 years, as can be seen in the above graph from NASA. This means that, regardless of the actual apex of the Cycle, we are in the 3-4 year Peak period right now.
It's simple math: 11 year Solar Cycles + 2012-2015 being the last Peak = 2023-2026 being the Peak this time around.
The way the scientists primarily measure Solar Cycles is by the number of sunspots they can see on the sun -- and usually, during Peak solar years, there are a LOT of sunspots. During Solar Minimums, when long distance radio propagation is poorer, there are less sunspots. Sometimes there are zero sunspots during Minimums.
And radio hobbyists -- from Shortwave listeners, to Medium Wave DXers, to ham radio operators -- all look forward to Solar Cycle peaks, because generally they will hear more stations from farther away.
So, right now, with the Solar Cycle at or nearing its Peak, when there are well over 100 sunspots on the Sun's surface (around 150-180+ at last count that I checked), long distance Shortwave and Mediumwave listening should be phenomenal.
But it isn't. Even as I finish this article, in mid-June, 2025, SW and MW long distance reception conditions are nothing like they should be.
All through Spring and Summer of this year, as well as every day I've turned on my radios before that, I have made daily and nightly notes of what I hear, and this time of year is when the HF ham and SWBC bands above 10 MHz are supposed to be hopping with activity, especially when we are nearing the peak of a Solar Cycle.
They aren't.
Even Static Crashes -- those crackling noises famous for marring reception in the lower ham and SWBC bands during the summer -- are often subdued, or even missing when I've tuned the 80 Meter ham band lately. This is when weather maps online show large fronts with T-storms a plenty in West Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Kansas -- areas from which the lightning noises should have made it to my radios at night.
Static Crashes -- lightning storm noises -- propagate through the airwaves, and SW and MW listeners can sometimes hear the crackles and pops from 1000 miles away or more.
When I started out in the SW hobby several decades ago static crashes were much, much louder and much more frequent on the lower SW bands than they are today. It's just one more puzzling aspect, and a possible indicator that the ionosphere is not reflecting radio waves like it used to.
And the lack of really good, long distance reception -- especially when compared to previous Solar Peaks -- is puzzling.
Online, some hams have been raving about making contacts on the 10 Meter ham band -- at least until the recent lull in ionospheric conditions since January or so. One guy online even said this Solar Cycle was 'the greatest solar cycle in history!' The guy in question, who has been a ham for probably 4-5 decades, should know better. Maybe he was just exaggerating for the fun of it. From listening to hams talk about the DX conditions over the air -- when they do talk about them, they seem to agree with my own assessment, that Solar Cycle 25 is a relative dud.
The fact remains that this Solar Cycle is nothing like the last two, and definitely nothing like previous ones in the 70's-00's.
I'm not the only SWL or SW/MW DX enthusiast who notices this apparent dichotomy: I sometimes see similar comments on the various ham radio forums, and I hear ham guys talking about it now and then on the air. Especially if they remember what DX was like 11, 22, or 33 years ago during previous Solar Peaks, and recognise that something is decidedly OFF about the present Solar Cycle DX conditions.
More than once I've heard ham guys wondering why the SW bands are so mediocre if we're in a Solar peak period. These are guys who remember what it was like in 2013, 2002, 1991, and earlier Solar Peak periods.
So what's going on, really?
WEAKER IONOSPHERE + LESS STATIONS = DUD SOLAR CYCLE
My conclusion, after a couple years of careful monitoring of the SW and MW bands, and doing some research, that that the issue is two things, basically: The ionosphere is not as 'reflective' as it was 11 years ago, making signal levels lower, and especially in the case of the HF ham bands, there are less hams on the air.
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Here is a NASA chart that is expandable, which shows both the Sunspot numbers in each cycle, and also the Solar Flux numbers for each month in the past two cycles. If you expand the chart, it will take you back to the 1900's. FWIW, last Solar Cycle at this point of the cycle there were less sunspots, but the DX on MW and SW was better. For example, June 2023 there were 160 sunspots. The DX was mostly just so-so. In June of 2012, 11 years earlier, it was very good, especially on MW -- with just 92 sunspots. Go figure. In my opinion, the difference was probably the eUV that makes the Ionosphere work.:
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MW and SW radio reception is better than it was 5 years ago, when we were in the Solar Minimum -- yes, definitely. But is it mind blowing, or even as good as 2012-2014? Nope.
It's obvious that we're closing in on the Solar Peak. So why have I turned on my radios lately, to hear fewer signals, and even several nights with what sound like "Nuclear Winter" SW radio conditions? Why is it that I heard tons more on MW, and tons more on the Shortwave ham bands, back in 2012, than I'm hearing now?
Why is it that even as Spring, 2024 progresses into Summer, and then into Fall, there have been 3-4 good DX afternoons on the high bands (mainly 20 Meters, though), and more numerous afternoons and evenings with mediocre DX on 20M -- and many afternoons 17M, 15M, 15M, 12M, 11M and 10M are basically dead?
A recent case in point -- during one weekend in February, there was a CW (Morse Code) contest on the SW ham bands. For the first time in a long time I heard the CW/Morse code sections of the ham bands quite busy with musical dits and dahs. It reminded me of a couple decades ago, when hearing busy CW sections of the ham bands was commonplace.
However, the farthest station I heard was a CW guy in Sweden, and that signal was exceptionally weak and fadey. And the sideband portions of the 20 Meter Band (the most popular SW ham band), 17 Meter Band, and 15 Meter band were mediocre, did not have many signals. The 12 Meter band's sideband section was dead, and the 10 Meter band had just two convos going on, both US stations, and both of them at relatively weak signal levels.
And this was on a weekend, a time when those ham bands are generally most active. You know, weekends -- when the ham radio operators generally have more spare time to operate their stations? In a month like February, when -- at least in the Northern Hemisphere, where I live -- they're usually not outside doing other stuff?
Other daylight excursions into 20 Meters have been a little more fruitful, with some EU stations (and a Russian station) heard late morning one day in late February: OE5SLN (Salzburg, Austria), OE3KDC (Austria), LA6VK (Stavanger, Norway), F4DZG (France), and RC3KR (somewhere in the vicinity of Voronezh, Russia) (all SSB). Most of these were on one frequency -- they wanted to talk to the guy in Alaska who was there (a KL7 call). But just a short time later the SSB portion of 20 Meters was basically dead. The SSB portions of 15, 12, and 10 Meters were similar.
There are some afternoons, however, I will indeed hear signals from distant places like Key West, Florida (which happened in early June -- a guy, W4KWS was working stations all over the Eastern US), and yet the 20 Meter band will still be half dead, despite the conditions being seemingly workable. Thirty years ago the 20 Meter Band would have been packed, in comparison.
Then there have been weeks of mediocre conditions on the higher HF ham bands (20 Meters through 10 Meters), even during the late afternoons when during a Solar peak year there should be lots of readable signals. Even HF 'beacons' like the two dependable RTTY stations on 30 Meters (Pinneberg, Germany on 10100 and NAU, Puerto Rico on 10155) are often MIA. It seems that over the past year or so, at least half to three quarters of the late afternoons, and many mornings, that I have tuned 20M, 17M, 15M, 12M and 10M, the bands are mediocre at best.
It begs the question: if this is close to "peak" time for Solar Cycle 25, is this as good as it gets?
Why is it that even now, as we approach the "peak" of the current cycle, the high SW Ham bands are still sounding more like a 1990's solar minimum -- or even worse -- than a solar maximum?
A chart showing how the eUV, that makes the Ionosphere reflect radio waves, is mostly absorbed in the upper atmosphere, and as shown in this article by NASA, that eUV has been dropping.
Northern Latitudes Have Different Propagation, Obviously
One possible factor -- which I've already considered before starting this article -- is that I live in the Northern Tier of American states. In fact, Seattle is farther north than any other major metro area in the US, and even parts of Canada -- at 47.5 degrees North, we're farther north than Detroit, Toronto, Chicago, Milwaukee, Duluth, Fargo, Buffalo, Boston, Halifax, Montreal, Quebec City, and even Minneapolis. We're farther north than the northernmost county in the state of Maine.
The farther north you are, the more influence (negative mainly) you get from the Radio Auroral Zone, which is more extensive than the visual Auroral Zone. DXers who live farther south typically have had better luck with a lot of reception, particularly on Shortwave. Hence the overly positive comments often mentioned online by many Southern US hams when any of the northern SWLs or hams bring up their suspicion that this Solar Cycle is a dud.
"I'm hearing all kinds of stuff," they'll say. Sure you'll hear more, if you're farther south and out of the Auroral Radio zone. But may of us have always lived in the northern states, and we're STILL seeing a disappointing Cycle.
And even this decidedly Northern quirk of Radio Geography I've been dealing with can't explain why in past decades and Solar Cycles, while I have been living at the exact same location for several decades, SW and MW reception conditions were much better in the past than they are now. It's not just nostalgic memories. I have the logbooks to prove it.
And I'm using the exact same equipment I was using 11 years ago, and mostly the same equipment I was using 22+ years ago . But the DX is not as good.
The present conditions just don't seem to line up with what I would expect during the Peak times of a Solar Cycle.
Lower Number of Active Hams?
Another factor to consider is that there are undoubtedly less active hams. But that wouldn't necessarily explain the relative dearth of signals from other parts of the world, unless -- of course -- the drop in ham ranks is worldwide. 40 Meters in the early morning used to be full of Indonesian and Malaysian activity, back in 2012. These past couple of years it's just not as audible, and the few Indonesian and Malaysian hams (and pirate hams) that get through have much weaker signals.
So, although there may be less numbers of active hams on the HF bands, and many of the active ones may only fire up their radios during contests -- and/or many of them may just be using digital modes on 14075, 7075, 21075, and the like (the FT8 digital mode channels) -- something still doesn't add up. But often I'll hear FT8 (which sounds like a sick ice cream truck) weaker than it should be on the higher HF ham bands.
The propagation still isn't living up to the hype.
Even when I hear stations from Australia and NZ, and parts of Europe and South America, their signals aren't as strong as they were 11 years ago during the last Solar Cycle peak in 2011-2014. And, of course, there are less US and Canadian hams working those stations.
My conclusion? This present Solar Cycle is a Dud.
Add to that the lower numbers of SW and ham stations on the air, it only makes it seem worse.
There are valid reasons why I think this is. Some of the reasons probably reflect my own experience as a long time SW listener and MW/AM band DXer.
This article will be a bit extensive, especially in my descriptions of what I used to hear on SW and the HF ham bands since the mid-1990's to show just how different (and better) reception was during past Solar Cycles (both Maximums and Minimums) compared to the way it is today.
I have to go into such detail because it seems that many in the Ham, MWDX, and SWL community have forgotten how good it actually was, even accounting for the fact that there were more SW stations on the air -- I heard more dependable signals from other parts of the world during Solar Minimums in the 1990's than I am hearing now during this present Maximum.
STACKS OF LOGBOOKS, AND MORE THAN 35 YEARS OF LISTENING
I have been a radio
enthusiast for a long time – more than 35 years of listening to Shortwave and
Medium Wave at night (or during the afternoons and mornings, when it comes to
Shortwave ham bands), and I have numerous logbooks stacked on a shelf in my closet somewhere, and generally I take voluminous notes when DX'ing.
The equipment I have used since 1989 is mostly the same. It still all works. My antenna has been an indoor, 25-30 foot (10 meter) wire since 2003 or 2004, when my 100 foot outdoor antenna blew down. That means I have been using the same identical equipment, for the most part (a couple GE Superadios, a DX-398, a DX-390, a Panasonic RF-B45, a DX-440, DX-370 and a couple other radios) since the late 1990s (I got my DX-440 in 1989). In the mid-1990s I had a flagpole antenna – 40 ft. of wire between the house and the flagpole -- and some time around 1997 or so I put up my 100 footer, which lasted maybe 6 years.
I now have a couple newer, DSP chip radios (a Sangean PR-D5, Grundig G2, and a couple other DSP Sangean MW/FM radios) which I bought in 2012, 2014, 2019, and last December, a couple of which I also use on Shortwave (my G2 and a new Tecsun). The SW DSP radios pull in the same SW stations -- basically -- off the whip that my other radios pull in off my 25-30 foot indoor wire antenna, and the Tecsun pulls in the same as my older radios do off the indoor wire.
I remember rediscovering SW in the Winter of 2002-2003 after a couple years break from maybe 1997 to 2002. I started working night shift again, and after I got home from work around 2-3 a.m. I started tuning in to the “Asia Pipeline”, and between the hours of 4 a.m. and 9-10 a.m. I was literally hearing the world, on SW and the SW ham bands. It was incredible.
I heard stations from China, India, and SE Asia, domestic Russian SW outlets
from Petropavlovsk, Magadan, and Ekaterinburg, and I even heard Bayerischer
Rundfunk in the 49 Meter Band (6085 kHz), playing 80’s music, and
Sudwestrundfunk in the 41 Meter band (7265 kHz) playing similar music
(70’s-80’s tunes).
From around 2005 to 2011, I wasn't listening much. Life got in the way.
Then, during the next Solar Cycle peak in 2011-2012, I got back into the SW and MW hobby again, and I was still literally hearing the world, although by then I was using my smaller, indoor, second storey antenna. Because the indoor antenna was high up near the ceiling on the second floor, it pulled in a lot more than one would normally expect. The DX I heard during 2011-2015 was pretty incredible. There were less SW stations broadcasting on the air than earlier years, but still plenty to hear on the SW bands each afternoon, evening, and early morning, on the SWBC bands and on the HF ham bands, too.
There were still some domestic Brazilian stations in the 60 Meter
Band, and the CB Outband was always loaded with signals during the late
afternoons / early evenings. In the Shortwave Broadcast bands I also heard
Chile, Swaziland, South Africa, China, Korea, Japan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,
Spain, India (Vividh Bharati), Australia, NZ, VOA out of Thailand, the BBC out
of Singapore (nearly every morning in the 41 Meter band), and SE Asia.
My point is, my equipment has been working the same since 2002-2005. In fact, since 2005 or so, aside from a couple new portable MW-FM-SW radios, it’s been identical.
The problem is: the Ionosphere has NOT been working the same since 2002-2005. It has not even been working the same since 2011-2015, when I was hearing all sorts of cool stuff on both the MW and SW bands, using the same identical radios and antennas that I use now.
My point is, my equipment has been working the same since 2002-2005. In fact, since 2005 or so, aside from a couple new portable MW-FM-SW radios, it’s been identical.
The problem is: the Ionosphere has NOT been working the same since 2002-2005. It has not even been working the same since 2011-2015, when I was hearing all sorts of cool stuff on both the MW and SW bands, using the same identical radios and antennas that I use now.
IT ALL WORKS OFF THE SUN
Now, every SWL, MW
DXer and ham radio operator knows that the Solar Cycle will affect how much you
hear. When the Solar Cycle is up, you’ll hear more. When it’s down, you’ll hear
less. And Sunspot numbers often are thrown out there as an indicator – 100+
sunspots means Conditions = Good. Few or no sunspots means Conditions = Bad.So, right now, as we approach the peak of Solar Cycle 25, the Sunspots appear to be up, but the Conditions? Not so much.
Why is that?
eUV radiation makes the Ionosphere work. And eUV has been gradually dropping since the 1990s.
And the drop in eUV irradiance over the past several decades is NOT reflected in charts like this one.
That said, I hope these charts are correct in their indication. I'm just not hearing it in my radio.
(graph can be found on VE3EN's excellent Solar ham website), which can be found here.:)
(graph can be found on VE3EN's excellent Solar ham website), which can be found here.:)
THE RAH-RAH-RAH
CROWD IS WRONG
Online, especially
on some ham radio and radio DX forums, there are people who rave about the new
Solar Cycle. They point at the numbers of sunspots. “Look at those sunspot
numbers!!” they say. They put up these impressive looking forecast charts – all
based on sunspot numbers.
I call them the Rah-Rah-Rah Crowd. This isn’t a cut on them – I get it. I can not blame them for their enthusiasm. What radio junkie wouldn’t want the Solar Cycle to excel? Who wouldn’t want to be able to hear all sorts of cool distant stations on SW, the ham bands, and MW? I’d like to hear a lot more than I’ve been hearing, considering we’re nearing the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which was once projected to outstrip Cycle 24, but comparatively seems to have not lived up to the hype. The problem is that I haven’t heard tons of great DX, and from what I hear being discussed on the ham bands, other guys are wondering where the DX went, too.
Why is this?
If you base your observations about the state of the Ionosphere from those Solar, sunspot charts alone, it looks pretty impressive. The latest forecasts say we’re headed for the peak in Sunspots late this year. As I write this article for publication, in Summer 2025, we're supposedly close to the "Peak" of the cycle now. After all, the Sunspot numbers are pretty hoppin’. NOAA Space Weather consensus is the "Peak" would occur between November 2023 and March 2026, with some Solar experts thinking the "Peak" would be this Winter, and other experts thinking it would be July, 2025. Some time in 2025 seems to be logical, when counting the years from the Solar Minimum which hit between 2019-2020 or so.
I call them the Rah-Rah-Rah Crowd. This isn’t a cut on them – I get it. I can not blame them for their enthusiasm. What radio junkie wouldn’t want the Solar Cycle to excel? Who wouldn’t want to be able to hear all sorts of cool distant stations on SW, the ham bands, and MW? I’d like to hear a lot more than I’ve been hearing, considering we’re nearing the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which was once projected to outstrip Cycle 24, but comparatively seems to have not lived up to the hype. The problem is that I haven’t heard tons of great DX, and from what I hear being discussed on the ham bands, other guys are wondering where the DX went, too.
Why is this?
If you base your observations about the state of the Ionosphere from those Solar, sunspot charts alone, it looks pretty impressive. The latest forecasts say we’re headed for the peak in Sunspots late this year. As I write this article for publication, in Summer 2025, we're supposedly close to the "Peak" of the cycle now. After all, the Sunspot numbers are pretty hoppin’. NOAA Space Weather consensus is the "Peak" would occur between November 2023 and March 2026, with some Solar experts thinking the "Peak" would be this Winter, and other experts thinking it would be July, 2025. Some time in 2025 seems to be logical, when counting the years from the Solar Minimum which hit between 2019-2020 or so.
Here is a link to NOAA's Solar Cycle Progression page.:
And here is a link to an article that was discussed on some ham radio forums, which said that the Solar Cycle "Peak" could arrive by the end of 2023.:
So, either way, the Solar Cycle is supposed to be in full acceleration mode right now.
So, if that’s the case, why isn’t my radio?
And it’s not just me. I’ve heard hams on 20 Meters talk recently about the high sunspot numbers, but also complaining that DX conditions are not anything like they were 11 years ago, or 22 years ago, during the Sunspot peaks in Cycle 23 and Cycle 24. They’re slowly seeing a disconnect between the high Sunspot numbers they see on the Solar charts, and what they actually hear when they turn on their rig. Guys are even talking about it on ham forums like QRZ.
And most rigs (ham and SWL) today are very good, if not actually stellar in capability. Tecsun makes great SW radios. On the ham side, the ICOM 7300, which is apparently the highest selling ham rig of all time, is an impressive performer, with a hot front end, and even a waterfall to help you see the signals. But even with good equipment, the results aren’t living up to the Sunspot hype. Hams out there on the bands seem to be talking about it now.
So I am not alone in my thinking that Solar Cycle 25 is a Dud.
So, if that’s the case, why isn’t my radio?
And it’s not just me. I’ve heard hams on 20 Meters talk recently about the high sunspot numbers, but also complaining that DX conditions are not anything like they were 11 years ago, or 22 years ago, during the Sunspot peaks in Cycle 23 and Cycle 24. They’re slowly seeing a disconnect between the high Sunspot numbers they see on the Solar charts, and what they actually hear when they turn on their rig. Guys are even talking about it on ham forums like QRZ.
And most rigs (ham and SWL) today are very good, if not actually stellar in capability. Tecsun makes great SW radios. On the ham side, the ICOM 7300, which is apparently the highest selling ham rig of all time, is an impressive performer, with a hot front end, and even a waterfall to help you see the signals. But even with good equipment, the results aren’t living up to the Sunspot hype. Hams out there on the bands seem to be talking about it now.
So I am not alone in my thinking that Solar Cycle 25 is a Dud.
SUNSPOTS DO NOT MAKE THE IONOSPHERE WORK.
UV Radiation Does.
The problem seems
to be that we all think Sunspot numbers determine the actual DX conditions
of the Ionosphere.I got some news for you folks, and it is something I only learned, by accident, off a NASA site about a year ago: The Ionosphere Doesn’t Work Off Sunspot Numbers. The Sunspots themselves are an indication of Solar activity, but the Sunspots themselves do not make the ionosphere work.
The Ionosphere Works Off Of Solar Radiation: I.e., “Solar Irradiance”. And that generally means UV radiation, particularly eUV radiation.
There is a difference.
And Solar Irradiance has been dropping. NASA has charts proving this. Solar Radiation – the higher UV radiation especially, which drives ionization of the Ionosphere, has been slowly dropping since around 1995-2000. Sunspots themselves seem to indicate where we are in a Solar Cycle, and they seem to indicate overall Solar activity, but the Sunspots themselves are not the driver that makes the Ionosphere reflect the radio waves back to the Earth. Solar Radiation, in general, does that. And Solar Radiation is dropping. The drop is gradual, but it is happening.
And Solar Irradiance has been dropping. NASA has charts proving this. Solar Radiation – the higher UV radiation especially, which drives ionization of the Ionosphere, has been slowly dropping since around 1995-2000. Sunspots themselves seem to indicate where we are in a Solar Cycle, and they seem to indicate overall Solar activity, but the Sunspots themselves are not the driver that makes the Ionosphere reflect the radio waves back to the Earth. Solar Radiation, in general, does that. And Solar Radiation is dropping. The drop is gradual, but it is happening.
Here is a useful NOAA article on eUV, which describes eUV as making the ionosphere work.:
Here is another NOAA article on the Sun's UV output and how it may -- or may not -- affect climate. In this article they mention that Solar UV in general changes up to 15% during a Solar Cycle, and eUV can change up to 300% in much smaller timeframes (even within minutes).:
SO, WHAT ABOUT SOLAR RADIO FLUX? Doesn't it count?
Some charts will indicate that overall eUV Irradiance levels can be tracked by looking at the Solar Radio Flux numbers. Solar Radio Flux is the amount of radio emissions, at a 10.7cm wavelength, that the Sun emits. And Solar Radio Flux can be measured on the ground, so the Solar Weather scientists find the Solar Radio Flux useful when putting together their forecast charts.
However, eUV, which is more important to the ionosphere, can't be measured from the ground, because it gets absorbed in the ionosphere. NASA has plenty of eUV data, but it's not as plentiful as the Solar Radio Flux data. This may be one reason that the Solar Flux charts that usually accompany the Sunspot charts look good, while the amount of activity your radio is hearing doesn't seem so good. The eUV has to be measured by satellites and similar detection methods.
The eUV issue seems to be quite overlooked in DX circles, and the general NOAA "Solar Weather" graphs and Sunspot Numbers charts seem to ignore it as well, treating the Solar Radio Flux numbers and Sunspot numbers as the end-all and be-all.
This may be one vital reason guys look at these charts, thinking DX should be rolling in, and then when they turn on their radios, they are dismayed because it really isn't living up to the projections.
More later on all of this, after a bit more background, so you can understand my own personal perspective on all of this, based on years of DXing MW and SW since the 1980's. There is a definite reason I think this Solar Cycle is not living up to the expectations, at least at this point in the Cycle. I was hearing more, from this same location, 11 years ago during the last Solar upswing, and I was also hearing more during previous Solar Minimums.
More later on all of this, after a bit more background, so you can understand my own personal perspective on all of this, based on years of DXing MW and SW since the 1980's. There is a definite reason I think this Solar Cycle is not living up to the expectations, at least at this point in the Cycle. I was hearing more, from this same location, 11 years ago during the last Solar upswing, and I was also hearing more during previous Solar Minimums.
I REMEMBER
2011-2015
I have a pretty good
memory of how things were on the radio in the late 1980’s, 1990’s, 2000’s, and
the early 2010’s, when I returned to the radio hobby after a 5-6 year impasse.
In the late 80s I had a 100 ft. wire aimed due south. In 1990 or so I put up a
better positioned 40 footer, which went to a flagpole in the yard. Then I put
up a second, better 100 footer, which aimed roughly ENE-WSW, which blew down in 2004. After that, I put up an indoor,
second story, 25 ft / 10 meter wire which I began to use nightly because it was getting the job done. The second story elevation, and wood-frame building helped. All of these antennas were the same height off the ground. I was hearing all
sorts of cool stuff on SW on all of them. I still had my Superadios, Panasonic, Sangeans and
loops for MW.
Now, I’m going into all this detail to make clear where I am coming from. Instead of reminiscing about the great SW and MW conditions of the 1990’s and 2000’s and risk sounding like someone wishing for the “good old days”, let me just go back ten to 12 years, to 2011 and 2012 – just one decade, basically -- when I rediscovered the radio hobby after not doing much with it from 2005-2011.
After all, 2012 wasn’t that long ago, and it’s a pretty good and fair comparison. And I was using identical equipment to what I have today, except for my Grundig G2 (which I got in 2014) and a couple Sangean MW/FM radios I’ve got. Otherwise, the equipment is identical – the same milk crate, MW loop antenna, the same 25-30 foot indoor, second story wire, and the same radios used for ham band, CW/SSB listening (a DX-398, Panasonic RF-B45, and a DX-390 -- all good quality SSB radios).
In 2011 and 2012 I was hearing all sorts of cool DX on Medium Wave. KVNS, Brownsville, Texas was a regular on 1700 kHz. Sometimes it would cover XEPE (Baja California), which at the time was ESPN. At the time, KVNS played classic hits. I could hear them most nights on a Sony Walkman and my loops. I haven’t heard them at all since maybe 2014.
In 2012 I was able to hear KDZR, Portland, 1640 kHz as late as ten or eleven in the morning, nearly every morning, with decent signals, playing their pop music, as they were Radio Disney at the time. This even happened during the Spring. That stopped when the Solar Cycle 24 dived in 2017-2018. I used to hear XEPE, Tecate, Baja California on 1700 kHz as late as 8-9 a.m. sometimes (KVNS and other 1700 kHz stations would fade out earlier). That stopped in late 2016 or 2017. I never hear them in the late morning anymore. And I often don’t hear them at night as strongly as I did in 2012. Some nights, even now, in late 2023/early 2024, I don’t hear XEPE at all.
In 2016 I once heard KBRE 1660 kHz, Merced California, coming in as early as 4:30 in the afternoon, in the Summer. After Solar Cycle 24 crashed maybe a year later, I still could hear them, but nowhere like before. And even now, KBRE has been iffy many nights and mornings.
I used to hear WCCO, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 830 kHz at least 2-3 times or more a month in 2012 and 2013. I don’t think I’ve heard them at all since 2015.
Now, some MW DX mainstays still are audible. KGO 810 San Francisco is still audible nearly every night. The Eastern Washington stations I tune into from night to night are still there. KSL Salt Lake City is perennially heard at night. KSTP 1500, St. Paul MN is still in at least every other night or so, sometimes with S3-S4 signals. Other times it’s MIA. I still hear XERF 1570, Coahuila Mexico from time to time. But they’re nowhere as strong as they were 10 years ago, and they only appear maybe once or twice a week, if that. Some nights 1570 sounds like a near-dead channel, except for KCVR Lodi California, which plays South Asian music.
So, there still is DX to hear, but the longer distance stuff (like Chicago, New Orleans, Mexico City)? The late morning stuff? It’s mostly MIA.
That’s Medium Wave. Now, onto Shortwave and HF ham bands.
I have been tuning the Shortwave bands forever. The number of stations is dropping – that is obvious. But the DX conditions are also down from where they used to be. In 2012 I was hearing the CB Outband hopping with sidebanders during the peak of Solar Cycle 24. On 27455, which is a Latin American Outband calling frequency, I was hearing nearly all of northern South America, along with Central America, Mexico, and Puerto Rico, and sometimes even Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.
Now, during this ‘peak’ cycle? The CB Outband – Latin American or otherwise – seems to be like a ghost town, compared to 11 years ago. I’m using the same exact radio (a DX-398), the same exact antenna (my 25 ft. indoor one) and the Solar Cycle is supposedly UP, but the Outband is DOWN. In 2012, CB Sideband channel 38, 27385 kHz, was always slammed with signals. Now? It’s not all that populated with signals. There are some afternoons it's got maybe 8-10 guys screaming at each other. But a lot of times it's deadsville. That was a rarity in 2012.
Now, I’m going into all this detail to make clear where I am coming from. Instead of reminiscing about the great SW and MW conditions of the 1990’s and 2000’s and risk sounding like someone wishing for the “good old days”, let me just go back ten to 12 years, to 2011 and 2012 – just one decade, basically -- when I rediscovered the radio hobby after not doing much with it from 2005-2011.
After all, 2012 wasn’t that long ago, and it’s a pretty good and fair comparison. And I was using identical equipment to what I have today, except for my Grundig G2 (which I got in 2014) and a couple Sangean MW/FM radios I’ve got. Otherwise, the equipment is identical – the same milk crate, MW loop antenna, the same 25-30 foot indoor, second story wire, and the same radios used for ham band, CW/SSB listening (a DX-398, Panasonic RF-B45, and a DX-390 -- all good quality SSB radios).
In 2011 and 2012 I was hearing all sorts of cool DX on Medium Wave. KVNS, Brownsville, Texas was a regular on 1700 kHz. Sometimes it would cover XEPE (Baja California), which at the time was ESPN. At the time, KVNS played classic hits. I could hear them most nights on a Sony Walkman and my loops. I haven’t heard them at all since maybe 2014.
In 2012 I was able to hear KDZR, Portland, 1640 kHz as late as ten or eleven in the morning, nearly every morning, with decent signals, playing their pop music, as they were Radio Disney at the time. This even happened during the Spring. That stopped when the Solar Cycle 24 dived in 2017-2018. I used to hear XEPE, Tecate, Baja California on 1700 kHz as late as 8-9 a.m. sometimes (KVNS and other 1700 kHz stations would fade out earlier). That stopped in late 2016 or 2017. I never hear them in the late morning anymore. And I often don’t hear them at night as strongly as I did in 2012. Some nights, even now, in late 2023/early 2024, I don’t hear XEPE at all.
In 2016 I once heard KBRE 1660 kHz, Merced California, coming in as early as 4:30 in the afternoon, in the Summer. After Solar Cycle 24 crashed maybe a year later, I still could hear them, but nowhere like before. And even now, KBRE has been iffy many nights and mornings.
I used to hear WCCO, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 830 kHz at least 2-3 times or more a month in 2012 and 2013. I don’t think I’ve heard them at all since 2015.
Now, some MW DX mainstays still are audible. KGO 810 San Francisco is still audible nearly every night. The Eastern Washington stations I tune into from night to night are still there. KSL Salt Lake City is perennially heard at night. KSTP 1500, St. Paul MN is still in at least every other night or so, sometimes with S3-S4 signals. Other times it’s MIA. I still hear XERF 1570, Coahuila Mexico from time to time. But they’re nowhere as strong as they were 10 years ago, and they only appear maybe once or twice a week, if that. Some nights 1570 sounds like a near-dead channel, except for KCVR Lodi California, which plays South Asian music.
So, there still is DX to hear, but the longer distance stuff (like Chicago, New Orleans, Mexico City)? The late morning stuff? It’s mostly MIA.
That’s Medium Wave. Now, onto Shortwave and HF ham bands.
I have been tuning the Shortwave bands forever. The number of stations is dropping – that is obvious. But the DX conditions are also down from where they used to be. In 2012 I was hearing the CB Outband hopping with sidebanders during the peak of Solar Cycle 24. On 27455, which is a Latin American Outband calling frequency, I was hearing nearly all of northern South America, along with Central America, Mexico, and Puerto Rico, and sometimes even Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.
Now, during this ‘peak’ cycle? The CB Outband – Latin American or otherwise – seems to be like a ghost town, compared to 11 years ago. I’m using the same exact radio (a DX-398), the same exact antenna (my 25 ft. indoor one) and the Solar Cycle is supposedly UP, but the Outband is DOWN. In 2012, CB Sideband channel 38, 27385 kHz, was always slammed with signals. Now? It’s not all that populated with signals. There are some afternoons it's got maybe 8-10 guys screaming at each other. But a lot of times it's deadsville. That was a rarity in 2012.
When Channel 38 picks up, there maybe are 10 stations on at a time, often including a continuous echo jammer. But it's more like the Summer, E-layer "short skip" than full on, F2 layer skip that one would expect on CB Sideband during a solar peak. There will be stations from the Eastern US states. But the band isn't slammed like it was in 2012.
Some of the problem may be that there are less Sidebanders with radios on the air. Every year, CB becomes less and less a big deal. But some of it is probably the ionosphere, too.
I don’t check 10 Meters (the highest SW ham band) all the time, but I tune through it nearly every day when I'm checking the high HF ham band conditions on my radios. More than half of the time, the CW / Morse Code Beacon section is relatively dead (for those who don’t know, the “Beacon section” is a swath of the 10 Meter ham band where hams can set up a radio to transmit their callsign and location over and over again, so other hams can see what sections of the US, Canada, and the rest of the world, they can hear).
20 Meters, the most popular HF ham band, isn’t quite as solid as it was in 2012-2013 either. I used to hear Australia and NZ during the early evenings a lot more than I do now, and when I heard them back then, usually I heard them with stronger signals. Even American hams have complained about the lack of great conditions to Oz and NZ, considering the high Sunspot numbers.
The CW sections of the ham bands used to be slammed during the late afternoons on 20 Meters, and 15 Meters had a lot of activity, too. 12 Meters had considerable sideband activity in 2012-2013. Now? Anything above 20 Meters is more like a ghost town than a thriving Mall. Some of it could be ham radio operators’ tendency to leave the radio just sit there, but I think there is more going on than relative inactivity. The only activity you’ll hear many afternoons and nights on 12, 15, and 30 Meters is JT65 / FT8 (a digital mode -- it's the sick ice cream truck sound one can hear on 14075, 7075, 21075, etc.).
It’s becoming obvious to many that the new Solar Cycle is, well, different.
My Realistic DX-390, one of the last ones with 'Realistic' on the nameplate, one of my two mainstays for SW and HF ham DXing in the 1990's. I used this radio nightly to listen to the Voice Of Turkey's several hours of great music all night in the 31 Meter Band.
There was a similar, sister radio to this one, the DX-392/Sangean 818CS, that had fairly similar radio circuitry, as well as a cassette recorder and player included. I heard a lot of the world on this radio, off of simple wire antennas. This radio is still my go-to radio for SSB and CW, ham band listening, because it is so easy to use and performs well. It also has a great sound on headphones, and one set of 4 D Cells lasts a long, long time.
I only recently have discovered how good it is on MW also -- although in my location it needs an external loop antenna to DX the MW band well, and it seems to drop off a bit above 1600 kHz in performance.
A JOURNEY BACK TO CYCLE
22 – Peak Year 1991, and DXing the SOLAR MINIMUM in 1996.
I recently
stumbled across a few old SW and MW logbooks. They were out of sequence, in a
pile in one of my closets. One was a small logbook from February to October,
1996. 1996 was near the end of Solar Cycle 22, which peaked in 1991. That means
that 1996 was either exactly the Solar Minimum, or close to it. My equipment
during this period was simple: a 40 ft wire outside (that went between my house
and a flagpole) and my DX-390 and DX-440. I had other radios I used for AM/MW,
but my 390 and 440 were the Shortwave mainstays.
Paging through my old logbook, two things were obvious: First, there were a LOT of stations on the air that are no longer on the air. Malaysian stations RTM Sarawak (7160 kHz, out of Kuching) and RTM Sabah (4970 kHz and 5980 kHz, Kota Kinabalu) are no longer on the air. Neither is the RTM outlet out of Kuala Lumpur (on 7295 kHz). Radio Anhanguera out of Goiania, Brazil, is no longer on the shortwaves on the 25 Meter Band on 11830 kHz. Singapore’s SBC / RCS Tamil service is no longer on 7170 kHz, sadly. Sri Lanka’s SLBC service on 9720 kHz (my first confirmed station out of South Asia – and this was during a Solar Minimum!) is no longer on the air.
The other obvious factor was the HF ham bands, all of them, had lots of activity, even though it was a Solar Minimum. I noted activity on the 11 Meter Outband, the 20 Meter band, and 15 Meters had activity also. 20 Meters, of course, was more active than 12, 10, or 15. But some activity in the higher bands was noted, even though it was Solar Minimum. One night I heard an Australian ham (a VK5, obviously in South Australia, I was unable to get all of his callsign due to fading) on 14125 at 0618 UTC, which is 11:18 p.m. here. That meant that more than half of the path to his transmitter in South Australia was in darkness.
And I heard it all – during a SOLAR MINIMUM.
Now, how many of
you American and Canadian SWLs (and hams) are hearing Australia as late as midnight
on the 20 Meter Ham band today? And – better yet – how many of you heard
Australia on 20 Meters as late as midnight during the recent Solar Minimum,
just 4-5 years ago?
I would wager that unless you are in the Southwest or Southern US, where the Auroral Zone has less influence on reception, you aren’t hearing Oz and NZ as late as midnight now, and you probably didn’t log Australia on SSB much, if at all, in 2018, when our last solar Minimum started.
All through my 1996 logbook I was hearing European hams on 20 Meters regularly. During the SOLAR MINIMUM. I heard CT1EHI out of Faro, Algarve, Portugal (14187 kHz, 2256 UTC), and I logged him a few days later, same time slot, on 14189 kHz. I heard HA4XW, Hungary (14197 kHz, 2149 UTC); and F5PFP from France (14135 kHz, 2129 UTC); 9A7W from Croatia (14168 kHz, 2217 UTC); OI1JD from Turku, Finland (14180 kHz, 1618 UTC); and F6BZU from France (14165 kHz, 1615 UTC); ZP1LL from Paraguay (14216 kHz, 0035 UTC); PR7CPK in Paraiba, NE Brazil (14208 kHz, 0047 UTC); and TJ1JR in Cameroon (14161 kHz, 2236 UTC) – all on 20 Meters USB. There were probably numerous other stations I heard during these sessions that I did not enter into my logbook. Most of these catches were during April-May 1996.
I could go on, as my logbook probably had several hundred separate catches or more – but these stations were all heard during Solar MINIMUM. Obviously, I wasn’t using a beam antenna and a ham rig – if I had, I probably would have heard more. During – I repeat – a SOLAR MINIMUM.
So what actually is happening right now? Why is it that the Sunspot numbers are so high, but the higher HF bands especially are relatively dead, if not completely MIA? I’m not the only DXer or user of HF who has noticed the effects of this.
Paging through my old logbook, two things were obvious: First, there were a LOT of stations on the air that are no longer on the air. Malaysian stations RTM Sarawak (7160 kHz, out of Kuching) and RTM Sabah (4970 kHz and 5980 kHz, Kota Kinabalu) are no longer on the air. Neither is the RTM outlet out of Kuala Lumpur (on 7295 kHz). Radio Anhanguera out of Goiania, Brazil, is no longer on the shortwaves on the 25 Meter Band on 11830 kHz. Singapore’s SBC / RCS Tamil service is no longer on 7170 kHz, sadly. Sri Lanka’s SLBC service on 9720 kHz (my first confirmed station out of South Asia – and this was during a Solar Minimum!) is no longer on the air.
The other obvious factor was the HF ham bands, all of them, had lots of activity, even though it was a Solar Minimum. I noted activity on the 11 Meter Outband, the 20 Meter band, and 15 Meters had activity also. 20 Meters, of course, was more active than 12, 10, or 15. But some activity in the higher bands was noted, even though it was Solar Minimum. One night I heard an Australian ham (a VK5, obviously in South Australia, I was unable to get all of his callsign due to fading) on 14125 at 0618 UTC, which is 11:18 p.m. here. That meant that more than half of the path to his transmitter in South Australia was in darkness.
And I heard it all – during a SOLAR MINIMUM.
I would wager that unless you are in the Southwest or Southern US, where the Auroral Zone has less influence on reception, you aren’t hearing Oz and NZ as late as midnight now, and you probably didn’t log Australia on SSB much, if at all, in 2018, when our last solar Minimum started.
All through my 1996 logbook I was hearing European hams on 20 Meters regularly. During the SOLAR MINIMUM. I heard CT1EHI out of Faro, Algarve, Portugal (14187 kHz, 2256 UTC), and I logged him a few days later, same time slot, on 14189 kHz. I heard HA4XW, Hungary (14197 kHz, 2149 UTC); and F5PFP from France (14135 kHz, 2129 UTC); 9A7W from Croatia (14168 kHz, 2217 UTC); OI1JD from Turku, Finland (14180 kHz, 1618 UTC); and F6BZU from France (14165 kHz, 1615 UTC); ZP1LL from Paraguay (14216 kHz, 0035 UTC); PR7CPK in Paraiba, NE Brazil (14208 kHz, 0047 UTC); and TJ1JR in Cameroon (14161 kHz, 2236 UTC) – all on 20 Meters USB. There were probably numerous other stations I heard during these sessions that I did not enter into my logbook. Most of these catches were during April-May 1996.
I could go on, as my logbook probably had several hundred separate catches or more – but these stations were all heard during Solar MINIMUM. Obviously, I wasn’t using a beam antenna and a ham rig – if I had, I probably would have heard more. During – I repeat – a SOLAR MINIMUM.
So what actually is happening right now? Why is it that the Sunspot numbers are so high, but the higher HF bands especially are relatively dead, if not completely MIA? I’m not the only DXer or user of HF who has noticed the effects of this.
HAM RADIO GUYS EVEN ARE PERPLEXED -- WHY ARE THE BANDS SO DEAD
When Compared To Previous Cycles?
During one early evening in October 2023, I heard a couple guys on 20 Meters talking about the mediocre DX
conditions, considering that there are so many sunspots. One guy raved about
1989, when “you could hear Australia all night”, something he noted isn’t the
case now. Another ham I heard later on was wondering why the Sunspot numbers
were so high, but he wasn’t getting the DX he used to during the previous Solar
Cycle.
“If there are so
many sunspots,” he said, “why aren’t the higher bands all loaded with signals?”
He had a point. The answer to his question is rather simple, and it is probably twofold.:
LESS HAMS, LESS ACTIVE HAMS, AND LESS PROPAGATION
First off, there may be less hams, and less active hams, than there were 11 years ago. It's just a fact. Here in the US, the number of hams peaked a few years ago, at around 780,000, and the number is slowly dropping (755,368 as of December, 2023, down from 779,545 hams in 2021, and even down from 2018's 755,430).
One quote I read for the number of US hams in May, 2024 is 750,996. So the numbers have dropped by about 30K from 2021, and have dropped by 4K+ in just one year.
But that still leaves a lot of US hams who could be on the air.
List of US ham numbers from 2018.:
Most recent list of US ham numbers from the ARRL, December 2023.:
ARRL article mentioning worldwide drop in ham numbers, and gives a 780K US ham number for 2021.:
But there also may be less numbers of active hams -- guys like one I know who several blocks away, who gave up because of the Solar Minimum, as well as the increase in RFI. He has a VHF vertical, and a multiband Inverted V antenna, an SDR-friendly ham rig -- and he's never on. I asked him why. "I never hear anything," he said, "except RFI".
If hams switch on their radios and don't hear anything except their neighbor's bad LED bulb, how enthused are they going to be about calling CQ and seeing if anyone can hear them?
A lot of modern-day hams, like my neighbor, are retired. You can often hear them say so on the air during QSO's. A lot of the increase in ham radio numbers since 2000 was older demos -- Boomers and GenX'ers who finally had the money available to get the license and get a ham station on the air. Many of them apparently got into the hobby after retiring, when they finally had time to devote to it.
But apparently not all of them are using their spare time retired by getting on the air.
Either way, it is obvious that Amateur Radio has an active ham problem.
But that isn't the problem with MW DX being poorer than it was 11 years ago. There are no ham stations on MW. The issue lies elsewhere.
IT'S THE SUN
When it comes to Propagation -- it’s the Sun. The
radiation has dropped just enough to make “chasing DX” tougher.
The Sunspots are great, the Sunspots are fine. Solar activity has indeed picked up from where it was 6 years ago. But the Ionospheric conditions that make DX so good, and the Solar UV Radiation that ionizes and energizes the Ionosphere, is lower now, during the near peak of Cycle 25, than it was during the MINIMUM of Cycle 22.
Got that? A Solar MINIMUM in the 70’s and 80’s had higher levels of Solar Radiation hitting the Ionosphere than we have now, during a Maximum. And Solar Radiation -- particularly extra-UV radiation -- is what energizes the Ionosphere.
But even if that perplexed ham I heard in October had used his radio during the Solar Minimum in 1995, the conditions would have been better than they are now, during our present, and approaching, Maximum. Because the Sun was almost putting out more Solar Irradiance during the Minimum in 1995 than it is putting out during the Maximum we are approaching now.
The Sunspots are great, the Sunspots are fine. Solar activity has indeed picked up from where it was 6 years ago. But the Ionospheric conditions that make DX so good, and the Solar UV Radiation that ionizes and energizes the Ionosphere, is lower now, during the near peak of Cycle 25, than it was during the MINIMUM of Cycle 22.
Got that? A Solar MINIMUM in the 70’s and 80’s had higher levels of Solar Radiation hitting the Ionosphere than we have now, during a Maximum. And Solar Radiation -- particularly extra-UV radiation -- is what energizes the Ionosphere.
But even if that perplexed ham I heard in October had used his radio during the Solar Minimum in 1995, the conditions would have been better than they are now, during our present, and approaching, Maximum. Because the Sun was almost putting out more Solar Irradiance during the Minimum in 1995 than it is putting out during the Maximum we are approaching now.
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NASA's Chart on Solar Irradiance. The thin yellow lines are Total Solar Radiance -- Watts per square meter, on the Earth's surface -- the thick line being an 11 year average, the thinner yellow lines being that actual data. UV, of course, is one of the smaller components of Solar Radiation that hits the surface of the Earth. According to this chart, Total Solar Irradiance has been dropping. That includes the UV (eUV in particular) that makes the ionosphere work.
Take a close look at the thin yellow line -- Solar radiation line. If you trace it back a couple decades, you'll see that the Solar irradiance was almost as high during the Solar Minimums of 1996 and 1985 as it was during the Maximum in 2014!
Also, compare this graph to any one of the historical "Solar Cycle" or "Sunspot Numbers" graphs that are generally posted on ham and DX radio sites. There is a big difference. I mean -- look at that yellow line -- the one that really counts.
(chart courtesy of NASA website)
(Chart courtesy Wikimedia Commons)
This chart is similar to the NASA chart up above, except it is a 'reconstruction' of Solar UV levels going back from 2000 to the 1700s. The very thin yellow line in the middle represents the reconstructed eUV levels. As you can tell, the measurements -- like in the NASA chart -- are in Watts per square Meter at the Earth's surface. The dips in Solar UV Irradiance (which is what makes the ionosphere work) have dipped to year 1850 levels, and not too far above Maunder Minimum levels, over the past two Solar Minimums. According to NASA, the eUV levels are lower today than the most recent year of this chart.
So if you wonder why the SW and MW DX is so marginal compared to earlier decades, now you have an idea why that is.
Here is another link, this one is to a NOAA page that describes Solar eUV, and how it is measured. There is a graph showing how the eUV is absorbed by the iononsphere.:
Here is another web page, which has a slideshow that deals with the dropping eUV in the past couple of decades.:
In the last linked article -- actually a slideshow presentation based on real solar science, the eUV dropped 15% between 1996's minimum and the following one in 2009-2010. The scientists measured the eUV levels at 26-36 nanometers wavelength, which is one of the largest components of eUV to hit the ionosphere.
Unfortunately, there is very little discussion or research into the drop in eUV over the past decades; its potential at harming long distance HF communications; or its effect on other ionospheric systems -- much less how much a dip in eUV affects SW and MW DXing.
But, suffice to say, eUV is definitely the mechanism that makes the ionosphere work, and the levels have indeed dropped. Whether they are increasing, long term, during this Solar Cycle remains to be seen.
160 METER ENTHUSIASTS COMPLAIN ABOUT THE SOLAR CYCLE
I recently heard a German ham -- a 160 Meter enthusiast -- talk about the 160 Meter band being dead anymore. He says he noticed a lot more activity 10 years ago, during the last Solar Cycle peak in 2012. The German ham blames the 160 Meter decline due to older hams leaving the hobby, and the lack of new hams wanting to chase DX on 160. But it's not just the factors he mentioned: when the Sun isn't cooperating, and the Solar Cycle is a dud, 160 won't be all that great. I can tell the difference between now and 2012 by tuning around my MW radios. 160 Meters is just above the MW broadcast band in frequency. Chances are high that the poor MW and 160 Meter conditions are just as bad for 160 Meter DXing as they are on the other bands, too.
There still is a lot to hear, obviously. And Solar Cycle 25, even if it’s a dud, is better than no Solar Cycle at all. You’ve got to adapt and survive, and this applies to the radio hobby as well. For all we know, the next cycle, Solar Cycle 26, may be mostly flat. Being that Solar Cycle 26’s peak will be around 12-13 years from now, I’m not going to worry about that right now.
I turn on my radio, and see what there is to hear. I’ll take what I can get. A year or two ago, I wrote in a blog article that MW DXers, SWLs, and hams need to “Get ‘Em While You Can”. Although the article was aimed mostly at MW and SW DXers, it still applies to hams, too. The fact is that MW and SW are fading in importance, and the Solar wobbles aren’t helping it any.
But there still is enough to hear. You may not hear Kashgar on your little Tecsun as much as you could in 2014 (like I did a couple times), but you can still hear it once in a while, and you’ve got to work with what you’ve got. You’ve got to tune channel by channel, and really listen.
There still is a lot to hear, obviously. And Solar Cycle 25, even if it’s a dud, is better than no Solar Cycle at all. You’ve got to adapt and survive, and this applies to the radio hobby as well. For all we know, the next cycle, Solar Cycle 26, may be mostly flat. Being that Solar Cycle 26’s peak will be around 12-13 years from now, I’m not going to worry about that right now.
I turn on my radio, and see what there is to hear. I’ll take what I can get. A year or two ago, I wrote in a blog article that MW DXers, SWLs, and hams need to “Get ‘Em While You Can”. Although the article was aimed mostly at MW and SW DXers, it still applies to hams, too. The fact is that MW and SW are fading in importance, and the Solar wobbles aren’t helping it any.
But there still is enough to hear. You may not hear Kashgar on your little Tecsun as much as you could in 2014 (like I did a couple times), but you can still hear it once in a while, and you’ve got to work with what you’ve got. You’ve got to tune channel by channel, and really listen.
I personally got saddened looking through my 1996, 1998 and 2001 logbooks, remembering all those cool stations I used to hear back then, and how life felt back then, too. Late one morning, April 10, 1996, I listened to RTM Malaysia on 7295 for over an hour, on my DX-440 (pictured above). The antenna was probably an 80 or 100 foot length of outdoor wire. There was a speech about Islam, and then over an hour of varied pop and rock music of the day, with DJ announcements. I used to hear RTM Malaysia regularly on the 49 and 41 meter bands. It was magical hearing broadcasts and signals from places like that! That magic is mostly gone. So I get it. Turning on your radio and hearing less on the airwaves isn’t the funnest feeling in the world.
But I don’t want to dwell on that. I can’t. I will still try to hear what’s out there. Until all of it is gone.
Solar Cycle 25 may be a Dud – but the MW and SWL hobbies AREN’T.
The MW and SW DX hobbies still have a lot to offer. I’ve heard Madagascar a bunch of times, even when propagation was mediocre – it still impresses me because Madagascar is the closest large landmass to the opposite side of the world from my location (there are no radio stations in Kerguelen -- which is the opposite point on the globe from here). It’s cool hearing VOA broadcasting to Zimbabwe from Botswana, too. The Ascension Island broadcasts to Africa seem to get through OK, too – even though they are beamed in the opposition direction from the US. And recently I’ve heard Vanuatu 2-3 times. There still are cool things to hear. And the ham bands sometimes have pleasant surprises, too.
IN CONCLUSION –
KEEP FIRING UP THOSE RADIOS
Some of you may be
wondering why I wrote all of this, about this present ‘dud’ Solar Cycle,
because it may sound like I am complaining. I’m not complaining, really.
I just think that we DXers and SWLs need a reality check. If you aren’t hearing what you heard 11 years ago and 22 years ago, there’s a reason. Don’t blame your radio, or your antenna, or your memory, because the issue may not be your equipment, or how you remember the ‘good old days’. And it’s not just less stations on the air that are the issue. The Sun is gradually decreasing its eUV output, although how long this gradual decrease will continue is not clear. It may be an indication of some sort of long-period cycle that Solar scientists are still trying to understand. Why this Solar Irradiance issue isn’t being talked about on the DX and ham forums is puzzling, but it’s reality. The Sun simply isn’t zapping the Ionosphere as much as it was in 2002 and 2012, and earlier. So if you’re not hearing tons of great DX, there is a reason why.
I talk a lot about this Irradiance issue here on my blog because think it’s important to understand how the Solar Radiation actually plays a part in all of this. Not just because of DXing, but Solar Radiation affects other things, too – like the trees, the plants we eat, the crops, and other natural cycles. eUV doesn't reach the surface of the Earth, but other Solar Radiation does. It also appears that the mechanism or complete effect of a Solar Cycle on crop production has not really been studied, as crops use the visible spectrum from the Sun, and although the dip in Solar Irradiance seems to be across the spectrum, there are few, if any studies, looking at its affect on crop production -- at least as far as I can ascertain.
I just think that we DXers and SWLs need a reality check. If you aren’t hearing what you heard 11 years ago and 22 years ago, there’s a reason. Don’t blame your radio, or your antenna, or your memory, because the issue may not be your equipment, or how you remember the ‘good old days’. And it’s not just less stations on the air that are the issue. The Sun is gradually decreasing its eUV output, although how long this gradual decrease will continue is not clear. It may be an indication of some sort of long-period cycle that Solar scientists are still trying to understand. Why this Solar Irradiance issue isn’t being talked about on the DX and ham forums is puzzling, but it’s reality. The Sun simply isn’t zapping the Ionosphere as much as it was in 2002 and 2012, and earlier. So if you’re not hearing tons of great DX, there is a reason why.
I talk a lot about this Irradiance issue here on my blog because think it’s important to understand how the Solar Radiation actually plays a part in all of this. Not just because of DXing, but Solar Radiation affects other things, too – like the trees, the plants we eat, the crops, and other natural cycles. eUV doesn't reach the surface of the Earth, but other Solar Radiation does. It also appears that the mechanism or complete effect of a Solar Cycle on crop production has not really been studied, as crops use the visible spectrum from the Sun, and although the dip in Solar Irradiance seems to be across the spectrum, there are few, if any studies, looking at its affect on crop production -- at least as far as I can ascertain.
Either way, there is a lot more to the Solar Cycles than just Sunspots,
Propagation and DXing.
But don’t give up.
DXing never has been super easy. In the 1970s and 80s most DX'ers had clock radios or non-DX portables for MW DX, and maybe a 10 transistor multibander for Shortwave, and they could easily overload, and because the radios had fairly wide selectivity and there were so many SW stations crammed together during the Cold War years, there were a lot of whistles and heterodynes. Because of analog readout, you had to count the channels on MW to know where you were, and SW frequency identification was a total guessing game. In contrast, today one can get inexpensive multiband radios with DSP chips inside, that perform really well even off a whip or short antenna, and most of them have digital readouts, too. And even if there is another station 5 kHz away, you rarely get a whistle or whine.
My first Shortwave radio, a Penncrest multibander, made in Japan, maybe by a company like Toshiba (I've never been able to determine this radio's actual maker). I first heard Radio Australia, Mayak (a Russian station for Soviet mariners), Radio Moscow, Radio Havana, Radio Nederland, and Radio Japan on this radio, connecting it to a 50-60 foot outdoor antenna. It had four SW bands (49, 41, 31 and 25 Meter bands) crammed into the one 'SW' "band", and each SWBC band took up maybe 3-5 millimeters of dial space on the analog dial. The fine tuner control came in handy when stations were crammed together!
It still works, and I fire it up every Christmas Eve, or thereabouts, to remember when I got it as a gift from my long-passed Great Aunt. SWLing on radios similar to these -- which still can be found at thrift stores and for sale online -- was a challenge. You never knew the frequency you were tuned to, and there were whistles (heterodynes) a plenty. But it was fun, of course.
The $15 XHDATA D-328 pictured above in this article works much better, just off a 10 meter piece of wire clipped to the whip. Such has the equipment for the SW and MW hobby improved over the years.
EXCELLENT, AFFORDABLE RADIOS AND DX TOOLS AVAILABLE TODAY
One constant is that you still have to tune your rig, channel by
channel, to really hear what’s on the bands. And there still are surprises. And
we MW and SW DXers today have access to terrific, affordable radios that
work wonders just off a whip antenna or internal loopstick, with tons of
memories available. The DSP often makes low signals more readable than the old
school, analog IF chip radios. And then there are SDR’s (Software Defined
Radios – a computer program that acts like a communications receiver), which –
even though I am not a fan of them – are a very cool tool to use for DXing, and
many guys hear a LOT on them. SDR’s were a rarity in 1990. Today they’re
common, and then you have the online SDR thing, which enhances the DX
hobby.
The Sun may not be completely cooperating with our DXing, but today we have access to so many great tools for pursuing the hobby! If you’d have told me in 1990 that I would have a radio that sounds great, has digital tuning and lots of memories, is great on batteries, and pulls in the same signals off its whip that other radios pull in off a 50 foot antenna – and also has DSP enhanced readability -- and that I would have instant access to current Shortwave schedules on a small device nearby -- I would have told you that you were crazy. But my Grundig G2 and Tecsun PL-398 do those things, and I can get EiBi and Short-Wave.info on my phone or tablet computer.
The Sun may not be completely cooperating with our DXing, but today we have access to so many great tools for pursuing the hobby! If you’d have told me in 1990 that I would have a radio that sounds great, has digital tuning and lots of memories, is great on batteries, and pulls in the same signals off its whip that other radios pull in off a 50 foot antenna – and also has DSP enhanced readability -- and that I would have instant access to current Shortwave schedules on a small device nearby -- I would have told you that you were crazy. But my Grundig G2 and Tecsun PL-398 do those things, and I can get EiBi and Short-Wave.info on my phone or tablet computer.
The G2 and PL-398 aren’t the end-all and be-all of radios, and I
still use my older analog models, but these DSP radios are little wonders. Even my little XHDATA D-328, a $15 radio I got for $25 with shipping, pulls in great DX off my indoor SW antenna, and it does well on MW with a loop, too! My little XHDATA D-219, $10 USD before shipping, is also a little SW and MW marvel.
So -- stick to your guns, folks! Tune those radios. The DX Conditions may not be as ‘hot’ as they were 12 or 22 years ago, but the hobby still is fun, and when it comes to the ionosphere, we get what we get. It’s nature. Live with it. 😊
So -- stick to your guns, folks! Tune those radios. The DX Conditions may not be as ‘hot’ as they were 12 or 22 years ago, but the hobby still is fun, and when it comes to the ionosphere, we get what we get. It’s nature. Live with it. 😊
A BIT OF 80'S MUSIC HISTORY -- A FAMOUS SONG ABOUT RADIO
I'll close this article with a couple of music vids -- the first one being a famous track about radio -- Video Killed The Radio Star, by the UK New Wave band the Buggles.
Not only is the song a cool bit of 1980's New Wave, it is known as the first video shown on the music video channel MTV, which was inaugurated in August, 1981. At the time, the idea of having a TV version of radio, with 'VJ's', where nothing but music videos were played, was pretty a pretty revolutionary one.
And also at the same time, the New Wave music scene was exploding, with all sorts of great new pop-rock music being produced, much of it from the UK, and the idea of an artist using video versions of their songs to sell the music was a new one. Soon enough, it turned into its own industry.
As most of us know, MTV took off like a rocket, and up until the early 2000's the channel was responsible for launching and/or promoting hundreds of musicians' and singers' careers. MTV's pre-eminence dominated the music scene from the Wave era of the early 1980s, through the hair metal era, and grunge / alt era of the 1990s, until it finally faded after the Nu-Metal era faded around 2004.
And this was the track that started it all: a song about radio.
This next vid is one of my favorite songs from the MTV era, Peter Shelley's first single, Homosapien. It also came out in 1981, the same year MTV was launched. The video is 80's to the max, and the song is a pretty good representative of some of the better New Wave music of that era.
The 1980's were a good time to be alive, believe it or not. The Cold War was beginning to unravel, culminating with the tearing down of the Berlin Wall in 1989. People make fun of some of the music, but most of it was actually quite good. Eddie Van Halen's influence on rock guitar was everywhere, and there were a lot of great guitarists both in the Wave and Hair Metal scenes -- the metal guys doing complex solos and the Wave guys playing complex, jazz tinged rock chords, filtered through chorus and echo.
And MTV was in the background of it all. They even had a metal show, the Headbanger's Ball.
A SEXY BLONDE WAITRESS, BEAVIS & BUTTHEAD, & SOUNDGARDEN
And here is Soundgarden's video for Outshined, one of their first big rock hits. I still remember the first time I saw this. As I never got cable TV at home, I only saw MTV at friends' houses, or in pubs. This one Saturday afternoon in 1991, I was playing bagpipes at the retirement party for a friend of my mother's. The party was in a high class pub and lounge that was located at the rooftop of the Renton Holiday Inn. The pub and lounge was mostly glass-enclosed, with roof to ceiling plate glass windows. It was a cool place, and there was a hot blonde waitress who was serving us all.
We got to talking a little bit, and after I was done playing, I had some tea (or O'Douls?) and the waitress turned up the volume on the TV -- which was mounted to the wall -- so there would be music in the room. It was MTV, playing Beavis & Butthead, who -- at that time -- would introduce some videos and make comments about them. I hadn't seen Beavis & Butthead before. And they introduced Soundgarden's vid, and then commented about how "cool" the band looked, and Butthead said "That's the way it is, walking around the streets of Seattle, everybody looking cool!"
Of course, this was when grunge was the big thing, and Beavis & Butthead were funny, and MTV was where everybody got their music video entertainment.
I often wonder where that pretty and friendly blonde waitress is now. The rooftop pub and lounge is long gone. A year or so ago the hotel itself closed down, a victim of the Pandemic. Soundgarden's music is still with us but Chris Cornell (the singer and one of the main songwriters) is gone, and we're in a very different era than we were in 1991. Compared to the grunge and alt-rock heyday, things appear rather dim.
Either way, I hope the blonde waitress is doing well. She made a lasting impression. I may not have learned the coolness of Beavis and Butthead without her switching on that pub TV.
If you're out there, lady, you're not forgotten.
The MTV channel still exists, but the magic of it of course is now all gone. But all the great music played on MTV over the decades still remains -- on the internet somewhere.
Peace.
C.C. August 8th, 2023, August 13th, 2023, September 4th, 2023, December 29th, 2023, January 7th, 2024, and December 20th, 2024. Finally finished, June 14th, 2025.
AUTHOR'S NOTE, May 7th, 2024:
As one can tell from the wide range of dates in my closing note, I took my time in composing this article, and then I even held off on posting this for a couple months after finishing it, to see if perhaps my opinion about Solar Cycle #25 sucking still holds. Winter time is supposed to be great for MW and the SW bands below 10 MHz, especially during Solar peaks. So far, it's still basically sucked, and we've even had several nights in December and January where it's sounded like Nuclear Winter on the 31, 41, and even the 49 Meter band at night. During the Spring, when the higher HF bands are supposed to open up, there have been mornings and afternoons where most of them are Deadsville.
If -- by chance -- Shortwave and Mediumwave conditions skyrocket later this year (2024), I'll turn out another article and talk about it, and maybe even admit I was mistaken. After all, no blog writer wants egg on their face. :-)
So we shall see. Or -- as my Scandinavian DX compadres would state it: Vi får se.
AUTHOR'S NOTE: December 24th, 2024, and June 14th, 2025:
AUTHOR'S NOTE: December 24th, 2024, and June 14th, 2025:
I finally finished this article, and being that it's now Summer 2025, and the SW and MW long distance listening conditions are nowhere near what they were 11 years ago, I've decided that it is time to publish this, being that my earlier suspicions about the Solar Cycle were accurate.
It's a good thing that most modern day DSP radios are really good at pulling out signals. With the ionosphere being less of a reflector than it was in the 2020's or 2000's, we need the extra performance, and DSP does help!
Although this article is overall negative, I remain positive about the MW and SW DX hobby. There still is much to hear. The overall conditions, and the declining number of stations on both bands, has made most SWL's into DXers, and MW DXers probably need to listen more carefully to what they hear on their radios. DSP radios, in some ways, are the equalizers.
Don't give up, never give up. The ionosphere is still working -- maybe not as great as I'd like it to, but it IS working.
I also advise all of you to prepare for the coming Solar Minimum. Get your antennas up and ready, maybe get a spare DSP radio, and stay positive.
And with that, I wish you all
Peace.
C.C., December 24th, 2024, and June 14th, 2025.
